A new report from the Caribbean Development Bank estimates the Virgin Islands’ gross domestic product shrunk by 2.7 percent in 2017 and predicts it will grow by three percent this year.

This month, the CDB released its 2017 economic review and 2018 outlook, analysing the fiscal picture in each of its 19 borrowing member jurisdictions and across the region at large.

Though the VI and a handful of other jurisdictions suffered drastic economic losses last year due to the hurricanes, the overall region saw economic growth of 0.6 percent, up from a loss of 0.1 percent the year before.

Despite that growth, the region continues to lag behind other parts of the world.
“Although growth returned in 2017, the region continues to underperform in comparison with other country groups,” the report reads. “Since 2009, annual growth has averaged 0.8 percent while in other small developing states, growth averaged 4.8 percent.”

The region’s GDP is predicted to grow by two percent this year, according to the CDB.

Hurricanes

The VI was one of five jurisdictions that saw negative economic growth in 2017.

Two others, Anguilla and Dominica, were also among the five CBD borrowing members hit hardest by hurricanes Irma and Maria (see sidebar).

The CDB acknowledged that the full economic impact of the storms on the region is yet to be seen.

“In all of the affected borrowing member countries, the social impacts are yet to be fully assessed, but the consequences of displacement and unemployment, especially for more vulnerable households, are potentially severe for future growth prospects,” the report reads.

The CDB predicts reconstruction activity will drive growth in the five jurisdictions hit hardest by the hurricanes.

 

Economic growth in CDB borrowing members

This month, the Caribbean Development Bank released its 2017 economic review and 2018 outlook. Below are estimates of the 2017 gross domestic product growth totals for each of the five CDB borrowing members hit hardest by hurricanes Irma and Maria, as well as the CDB’s growth forecasts for each in 2018. Estimates and forecasts for each of the CDB’s 19 borrowing member countries can be found on the CDB’s website.

 

Virgin Islands: –2.7% in 2017, +3% in 2018

Anguilla: –3.5% in 2017, +7% in 2018

Antigua and Barbuda: +3% in 2017, +5.3% in 2018

Dominica: –6.9% in 2017, +6.4% in 2018

Turks and Caicos Islands: +3.4% in 2017, +4.4% in 2018